Looking ahead to winter ... What does a Mild El Nino really mean for SW/Central Idaho?

Courtesy National Weather Service 

Previous El Nino winters since 1950 in terms of precipitation. 1976-77 was my freshman year at the University of Montana, and it was absolutely one of the worst drought winters in the 1900s ... Montana Snow Bowl in Missoula never opened! 

Hi all,

I went to an early-season meeting with water and weather experts last week to learn more detail about what a mild El Nino winter really means, and what's expected?

The bad news is that if the experts are right, the El Nino winter will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal precipitation at least in the first half of the winter. The jet stream with storms is expected to set up to move across the southern tier of the United States, and more High Pressure weather patterns are expected to set up off the Pacific Coast.

That's the pattern we have right now affecting Southwest Idaho ... we've had High Pressure systems dominating the region, with cold and clear nights, cold mornings, and warmer afternoons suitable for hiking, biking and running.

This weather is expected to persist until the end of next week, when there's a chance of storms moving in on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The official 6- to 10-day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for this region ... guess we'll see if the above-normal precipitation kicks in over Thanksgiving weekend.

So for the short term, if you're excited to see some snow fall in SW Idaho, you'll have to wait until then. And if you want to go skiing, you'll need to look for opportunities where resorts are making snow. Sun Valley always comes through with at least some limited skiing/riding available with its world-class snowmaking system. Brundage Mountain will be making snow on the bunny hill and at the Activity Barn, the tubing hill and xc area south of McCall. Bogus Basin also is firing up its snow-making system to provide some early-season skiing.

Going back to El Nino winter predictions, Troy Lindquist with the National Weather Service indicated that "not all El Nino events are the same." They printed a series of maps of El Nino winters to show how things really play out. "You see a lot of variabilities in there."

Long-term precipitation trends also may not be as dry as predicted, Lindquist said. "With the precipitation index, there is not as strong of an indicator one way or the other," he said.

Looking at the latest 30-day and 90-day forecasts, Lindquist is right ... all of the long-term forecasts are predicting above-normal temperatures, but as you look at the 30-day and 90-day forecasts, the chance of precipitation is showing more like "Equal Chances" (which is good) or even "Above Normal."

What this means is that depending on how many degrees above-normal temperatures we get, the snow level may rise higher than we'd like ... the base area of most ski resorts in Idaho is at about 6,000 feet. If the freezing level is more like 7,000 feet, you know what that means ... pretty soggy conditions at the base area ... and poor snow quality. 

Here's a series of maps showing their precipitation predictions:

8-14 day outlook shows a good chance of above-normal precipitation ... 

30-day outlook calls for Equal Chances or above-normal precipitation in E. Idaho 

90-day outlook calls for Equal Chances of precipitation. That's good! 

The bottom line is you should hope for a cold and snowy winter and hope the weather people are WRONG! Grow a beard! Women could grow hairy legs. Do a snow dance. Do whatever you think will bring snowy conditions!

This is what we're hoping for! Big *pow*! 

Every El Nino winter is different!
- SS

 

Go see Warren Miller "Line of Descent," then create your own snow adventure

(Courtesy Warren Miller Entertainment) 

(Courtesy Warren Miller Entertainment) 

(Courtesy Warren Miller Entertainment) 

  

(Courtesy Warren Miller Entertainment) 

Hi all,

In case you haven't noticed, we are transitioning to winter. Are you ready? There's nothing better to get the adrenaline flowing about skiing and snowboarding than the annual Warren Miller ski movie. This year, the move is titled "Line of Descent." It's the 68th film produced by Warren Miller Entertainment, promising downhill thrills, global adventure and a nod to ski instructors ...

"Ride along on a stunning cinematic journey as we travel near and far, descending some of North America’s deepest lines in Jackson Hole, Montana, Silverton, Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows, and Steamboat," a Warren Miller press release said. "From powsurfer to splitboard, motorcycle, dogsled or snowmobile, watch as athletes chase winter along the Beartooth Pass, the French Alps, New Zealand, British Columbia, and Norway.

“This season, we explore how skiers are shaped by picking up a pair of skis for the first time,” notes Warren Miller’s veteran producer Josh Haskins. “More often than not, it’s family who introduces us to the sport or steers us on the path towards an ongoing passion—be it a ski bum lifestyle, a professional career or simply the desire to pass on the same feeling to the next generation. There is a kinship unlike any other in the ski community, and Warren Miller is the elder, bringing generations of skiers and riders together for 68 years, and this year is no different.”

"Line of Descent" is playing at the Egyptian Theater Thursday and Friday at 7 p.m. There are two showings on Saturday, one at 4:30 p.m. and another at 7:30 p.m. Tickets cost $15. See you there! 

After you get pumped up for winter at the Warren Miller movie, you can go play in the snow ... you could go for a snow-boot walk, go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing in a "discovery" mode in the backcountry before any of the official trails are open. Places at higher elevation such as Bogus Basin, Bogus Nordic Trail, Mores Creek Summit and Park n' Ski Areas above Idaho City, The Strand and Crown Point Trail in Cascade, North Valley Trail and Bear Basin in McCall, McCall Golf Course, Galena Summit, north of Ketchum/Sun Valley, and Stanley. Snow biking would work in a lot of those places as well! 

Bogus opening a hike-to terrain park at the base area on Friday, Nov. 17, with 11 features ... That's a great idea for people to get out and play in the snow before the lifts are running ... 

I noticed that the Blaine County Recreation District and Galena Lodge have some trails open right now! The Harriman Trail from Prairie Creek to Galena Lodge is open, and several trails at Galena are open. After more storms come tonight and tomorrow, you can bet they'll be opening more terrain. Early season might be a good time to find lodging deals in the Wood River Valley. Galena Lodge is reporting that they'll be open for business starting on Saturday. They have over 12 inches of snow, but that's going to double by this weekend if the big storms come through. 

Bogus recently had its Pray for Snow party last Sunday, and Brundage is hosting a SNOWvember Meet & Greet Pray for Snow party tomorrow night, Nov. 17, at Broken Horn Brewing in McCall, 201 S. Mission Street, near the Smokejumper Base. Sounds like fun! 

One more idea this weekend, the weather is supposed to clear on Saturday and Sunday, and that means the lower Boise Foothills trails could be in decent shape for hiking, biking or trail-running. 
Check the Ridge to Rivers web site and/or Facebook page to get the latest conditions and advice from our trail keepers. It's usually best to visit trails that are sandy and dry out quickly. 

Have fun! 
- SS 

Enjoy the new snow! Finally!!! Watch out for avalanche danger in the backcountry

2 feet of new snow in 2 days at Brundage Mountain. Woo hoo! (Courtesy Brundage.com)

The whole NW region is getting hammered with precip. Bring it! (Courtesy NOAA)

Hi all,

Well, that bullet-proof ridge of high pressure that prevented any storms from hitting the Pacific Northwest for 6+ weeks is finally gone, and now we can go play in the snow. Yay!

My message this week is "enjoy the snow" with a few words of caution, and I've got a reminder below about the Jan. 31 deadline for river permits.

Because we've been getting hit with so much snow in such a short amount of time, please be aware that skiing in the backcountry is VERY HAZARDOUS right now. Here's a link to the Payette Avalanche Center with their latest forecast, which indicates that the avalanche danger is currently "high," and expected to get worse. More than 30 inches of snow has fallen in the high country in the last three days, with a ton more coming.

No matter what, be sure to pack an avalanche beacon, shovel and probe if you venture into the backcountry. And know how to use those tools!

I would recommend skiing or riding at an established resort in the next few days for the safest conditions. Bogus Basin has opened the front side of the mountain, and as more snow falls, watch for the backside to open soon. Can't wait to try the new Superior quad! Brundage Mountain has been getting hit with tons of powder, and so has Tamarack. Sun Valley hasn't received quite as much snow as the west-central mountains, but I'm sure the skiing there is fabulous as well.

The Idaho City Park n' Ski Areas also are getting hammered with snow. Snow depths were well over 30 inches as of Thursday morning, Jan. 19. Idaho Department of Parks and Recreation officials recommend trying the Gold Fork and Banner Ridge ski and snowshoe trails this weekend. The groomer has been working around the clock on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of this week. IDPR recommends that you call the grooming hotline to get the latest conditions. Call 208-514-2423.

Try to stick to the groomed trails or at least the trails that have been groomed most recently for the best conditions at the Park n' Ski areas. Off-trail snowshoeing will be REALLY deep and challenging. Stay off steep slopes to avoid avalanche danger.

IDPR officials recommend that you bring a snow shovel for digging out your vehicle in case you get stuck or the vehicle get smothered with snow while you're out having fun. Also, be sure to drive a 4WD vehicle if you go to one of the Park n' Ski areas. You'll get stuck otherwise, and it won't be pretty.

Enjoy the snow!

Here's a reminder about river permits -- they're due on Jan. 31. If you'd like to apply for a private permit to run Hells Canyon, the Middle Fork of the Salmon, Main Salmon or the Selway River, you need to apply through www.recreation.gov. Get a group of your friends together and apply for similar dates at a time when you can take a vacation on an Idaho river.

It costs $6 to apply. You'll find out in late February whether you were successful. If you are lucky enough to draw a permit, you'll be the most popular person in your circle of friends. Use that leverage for all it's worth! :)

If you'd rather go on a guided raft trip with an outfitter, see the Idaho Outfitters and Guides Association web site to look into that possibility. Idaho has many wonderful outfitters and guides who can take you on a trip of a lifetime.

Have fun!